Wednesday, August 31, 2005

Calling the Top

A couple of astute market observers are suggesting that the top may, in fact, be in for the housing market. This from Bill Fleckenstein:

"Last Tuesday saw the release of July existing-home sales that were slightly below expectations. For the housing market, one piece of data in the National Association of Realtors report portends the end of ever-higher prices: The supply of homes on the market now stands at 2.75 million -- the highest since May 1988.

. . .

Given all the multiple-property buying that's occurred, the accounts in the media . . . and what readers of this column have observed with their own eyes, this news is somewhat surprising. However, it was inevitable that inventory would start piling up at some point. The time, as it turns out, is now.

That excess inventory, together with the further supply now in various stages of coming on stream, makes me feel more strongly than ever that this summer will be seen, with benefit of hindsight, to have been the top. In essence, Time Magazine's cover early last June -- "Home $weet Home: Why We're Going Gaga Over Real Estate" -- will more or less have marked the peak."

Link:

It's RIP for the Housing Boom

And this (admittedly more hysterical take) from Theodore Mantle of The Wall Street Examiner:

"The biggest financial disaster in history is unfolding in real time right before our eyes. Due to the lingering effects of mass hysteria, denial remains widespread. But the numbers don't lie.

The U.S. Commerce Department announced Wednesday that sales of homes increased 6.5 percent in the last month, while median prices fell 7.2 percent, down three months in a row and falling below year-ago levels.

Increased volume selling into a falling market looks to me like the beginning of a good old-fashioned collapse.

The current inventory of houses waiting for buyers is 460,000 -- an all-time record."

Link:

Panic Selling as Home Bubble Bursts

71 Comments:

Blogger John Doe said...

Hello Peter,

Enjoyed your commentary. Personally, I prefer blogs like yours that offer some insights a bit more than the standard journalists offer.

As far as calling the top, I believe that this is much like "the tipping point", if you've ever had the fortune to read the book... it's hard to see societal changes as they happen, only the truly astute and those looking for the warning signs are those that can see shifts soon after they happen.

I believe that some of the key triggers still require large amounts of people to change their minds about to turn this titanic around... for example, average people have to begin seeing their home as a use asset, not an investment vehicle, some devastating and high-profile losses need to come to the foreground, and bonds investors need to begin requiring higher risk premiums before we start the slide down.

Besides, with RE being so local, we will have many "tops" to call, perhaps the one in San Diego has already happened!

Feel free to stop by my blog sometime at:
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Regards,
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