Monday, August 22, 2005

Warnings from Robert Schiller (aka Mr. Bubble)

The Sunday Business Section of the New York Times had an interview with Robert Schiller, who had warned about the irrationality of the stock market in the mid '90's jus before Alan Greenspan came out with his famous "irrational exuberance" pronouncement. Schiller's subsequent book on market behavior took that phrase for its title. In his second edition he focuses on the likelihood of a bubble in housing.

In the interview, Schiller states that real estate could adjust downward by as much as 40% in real terms over the next decade. However, he also notes that prices could continue to increase for a few more years and then slowly adjust downward with prices languishing for years: "'There will be many people thinking it was a soft landing even though prices may have gone down in real terms by 40 percent.'"


Mr. Bubble's Worried Again


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